Saturday, September 27, 2008


As the "markets" have had their problems in the past few days, it occurred to me that we have another market ready for problems: the market in political candidates. There are several of these, perhaps the best publicized of them over here being Intrade.
Earlier this week, it appeared that someone was attempting to raise the price on shares in McCain on Intrade: the other markets all started moving towards Obama (following the polls) whereas Intrade didn't. Given the relatively small investments required, this looked like perhaps an attempt behind the scenes to bolster him, perhaps to keep a theme from developing in the press.

In the past few days, the price of a share in Palin being replaced has risen, touching 10 cents --- that is, for 10 cents you can win a dollar, if she is replaced. If it weren't for the fact that it is so much fun having her on the campaign, it would be worth suggesting that somebody buy the shares up to 50 or 60 cents, so that the meme would develop that she had to go.

Mind you, I wouldn't put it past the "maverick" to try to kick-start his campaign by replacing her: perhaps he could claim dereliction of duty for not appearing on all the news networks to defend him after the debate last night...

Yours, just musing,

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