Monday, October 15, 2007

On the environment: catastrophes cusps and cliffs

In the 1970's a new field, catastrophe theory, became rather popular in mathematics: or at least, in the scientifically literate population's view of mathematics.
One notion that became popularized was that of being at a cusp, and the possibility of a very rapid transition from one situation to another, in a not-easily reversible fashion.
Being a fan, as I was at that age, of cartoons, I think of these more visual terms: especially that of running or driving along a road, encountering a cliff: if one drives on, one experiences a sudden, hard to reverse, loss of altitude. Of course, in cartoons, the characters don't actually fall until they realise that it is too late.

There is a possibility that we are at a cusp regarding the environment right now. It is not impossible, and I fear likely, that we are already off the cliff, and our legs are still going: we just haven't seen it yet. Here's why.
We are all aware of the fact that carbon dioxide is a ''greenhouse gas'': it traps energy and leads to a warming effect. But there is a secondary effect too: there are large deposits of methane frozen in the tundra in the permafrost, and there are signs that the permafrost is thawing: now, methane is also a greenhouse gas, as bad as or worse in this regard than carbon dioxide. And as the temperature rises, more permafrost will thaw, and more methane will be released. And as more methane is released, the temperature rises, and more methane is released, until a new stable situation is arrived at.

The fact that the new situation is stable doesn't mean that it is good, or even tolerable: it merely means that it will be a lasting situation for a while. And if it is a few degrees hotter on average than now, that will be a disaster for life as we know it.

Yours, on a cusp,
N.

1 comment:

Cornish Dreamer said...

A good blog entry breadbox. I think you've made a crucial point here and I like your analogy with the cartoon characters.

There is also methane trapped at the bottom of oceans as clathrate (or hydrates, if you prefer). The warmer the temperature of the water, the higher probability it will destabilize and enter our atmosphere. That and the permafrost makes it a ticking time bomb that will feed upon its own results.

Perhaps you're right, that we are just waiting to notice the fall, and all the environmentalists will be able to do is say: I told you so. But, at least we can still try to change.

RT