Why were the polls so wrong? I see two plausible theories: the first is that race is an issue: I would really like to believe that this was not the case, but it is not that easy to discount.
My favourite theory so far is that the turnout for McCain was significant among the independents, and that was one of the things which really hurt Obama. And that the reason that many of those voters went for McCain (that is, voted in the Republican primary) is that they saw that Obama was really well ahead already, and they felt that their vote wasn't needed there, and so voted in the other primary. Of course, in the popular media this would be regarded as "quantum mechanics hits politics" and "you can't observe without affecting the system".
Who knows. It certainly makes the Democratic race a bit more interesting again!
Yours, as ever,
N.
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3 comments:
Wasn't that FUN to watch?? I like your McCain theory. It makes sense to me, but then again I've always been enamoured with quantum mechanics theory.
I'm sure however, given the vacuous nature of the media, they will believe it had something to do with Hilary having her PMS moment the other night when she showed she had emotions.
ps. Edwards speech was great.
Aren't polls a measure based on a small selection of the population...? I think there's a chance that the polls can push voters into a different direction.
So Clinton is still in with a chance. Definately makes things more interesting.
Part of the issue is the particular rules for voting in N.H. (last minute registration, etc.) which tends to throw polling in disarray.
-J.
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