The primary on Tuesday differs from the ones in South Carolina in one important respect: while voters can vote in whichever primary, Republican or Democratic, they wish in both states, in NH they get to make their mind up after they've decided to go to vote: the primaries in both parties are held on the same day: so a strong turnout amongst independents for McCain hurts Obama, and vice versa (assuming that these two are the primary recipients of out-of-party votes on Tuesday.
By contrast, in South Carolina, the Republican party's primary is a week before the Democratic party's: I think that this will lead to much less crossing of lines from party to party: I don't know what effect it will have on independents turning out for
each primary: that may depend to an extent on the NH tallies. But we should be able to tell, a week ahead of time, whether or not there is a good prospect for Obama to pick up independent votes in the Dem's primary, based solely on the independents turnout for the Rep primary a week earlier! The bigger the turnout for R, the less the independent turnout for D.
Yours, fascinated by this process
N.
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For us who are a few countries removed from the process ... it seems a bit too long drawn out ... it's hard to keep focussed. I feel like saying ... just pick your candidate and lets get on with it .....
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